CAWM - It Just Won't Work

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It Just Won’t Work
Doug Salzmann - September, 1998

Sonoma County residents have been very frustrated, for a very long time, with traffic congestion and travel delays on Highway 101. Regular commuters can predict the times and places where traffic will slow to a crawl or grind to a halt. We are all fed up with creeping along a highway with a 65 mph speed limit and we don’t want to take it anymore. Under these conditions, it is natural that most Sonoma County voters favor widening 101 between Windsor and the Marin County line, as proposed by Measure B on the November ballot. Enacting a twenty year increase in the sales tax to pay for the work, which is the purpose of ballot Measure C, appears less popular. Clearly, most citizens want to take steps to relieve congestion, speed up the traffic and make the freeway flow freely again, but are unsure whether this combination of measures is the best way to achieve the desired goals.

The current plan is not the best way to proceed. The sales tax increase is a $600 million blank check which can be spent on any projects the Sonoma County Supervisors choose, and the proposed transportation projects will never significantly relieve congestion. If the highway widening project is undertaken, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars will be wasted, hundreds of thousands of tons of gravel will be strip-mined from our Russian River, and the highway will still be congested. You won’t soon forget this futile and expensive project, either. For the next twenty years, you will be reminded every time you go shopping. If Measure C passes, Sonoma County will have the second highest sales tax rate in California.

Where will the money go?

If Measure C passes, money raised by the sales tax increase will go wherever the supervisors want it to go. The sales tax is a general tax and its proceeds will go into the county’s general fund. Measure B, the transportation measure, would merely advise the supervisors to utilize available funds on the proposed projects, including widening 101. It has no legal standing.

Proponents of Measures B & C are fond of explaining that they will make certain that the sales tax money will be spent on the Measure B projects. They tell us that there will be a "watchdog committee" to keep an eye on the use of the funds, and that "political reality" will prevent supervisors from spending the money on other projects. This might be true at first, but it is very unlikely to be true for the twenty years we would be paying the higher tax.

The "watchdog committee" proponents refer to does not exist. If it did, it would have no legal standing and county government would be under no obligation to follow its recommendations. It’s nice to imagine that such a committee could be effective, but the fact is that it could not.

Neither the backers of the tax increase nor anyone else can predict the economic and political future. Twenty years is a long time in local politics. We don’t know what pressures and choices Sonoma County will face in the coming two decades. We may raise less money from the proposed tax increase than is currently projected. We may face budget deficits, for any of a number of reasons not obvious to us today. At any time in the next twenty years, we might elect supervisors who are not committed to the transportation projects suggested by Measure B. In any of these circumstances, or in others we cannot now foresee, future supervisors (some of whom may be in elementary school today) may choose to spend the sales tax money on other items. There is nothing to stop them. Measure C is a blank check.

Are these lanes for you?

When speaking with Sonoma County residents about Highway 101, it quickly becomes apparent that many do not know that the proposed widening would add only high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, usually called carpool lanes. If you drive alone, you will be stuck in the same congested lanes as always, while a few buses and carpools zip by in lanes you can’t use. It may seem that vehicles moving to the new HOV lanes will open up plenty of space for the rest of us in the other lanes. That is almost certainly not true. The vast majority of Sonoma County commuters drive to work alone. A relative few commute by bus or carpool, modes which are permitted to use the HOV lanes. As these vehicles move to the HOV lanes, plenty of others are ready to take their places, leaving 101 nearly as congested as ever. There is a "pent-up demand" for any increased capacity on 101. This demand will result in what traffic engineers call "generated" or "induced" traffic.

The hidden demand for 101 capacity consists of trips which are now postponed, or which are diverted to parallel routes, because of congestion on 101. The traffic waiting to make the new, wider highway just as congested as ever can be found today on Old Redwood Highway, Stony Point Road, Santa Rosa Avenue, Petaluma Hill Road and the other routes Sonoma County drivers use to avoid our crowded Main Street freeway. Studies have found that up to 90% of new highway capacity is quickly filled by this generated traffic.

Widening Highway 101 will not significantly improve congestion. A few businesses will benefit from the money spent on the project. All of the rest of us will just pay for it &endash; for the next twenty years. After hundreds of millions of tax dollars and years of construction delays, we’ll still be stuck in traffic.

The best we can hope for?

The proposal to widen 101 is based upon a study conducted by transportation and planning experts, with a final report presented to the Board of Supervisors in June of last year. Known as the Calthorpe Report, it investigated the costs and results of several scenarios to improve transportation in Sonoma County. It is often referred to by proponents of the highway widening and sales tax increase as supporting their position. The truth is that the Calthorpe Report reaches some fairly gloomy conclusions.

The experts conducting the study evaluated several options for improving traffic flow on Highway 101. Ultimately, they recommended a "Preferred Scenario" including HOV lanes and climbing lanes along those sections of the highway where the research indicated they will be most helpful. Even with these improvements, the strongest claim for congestion relief made by the Calthorpe Report is that delay during the morning commute will be reduced by ten percent. What does that mean? It means that, if you usually experience a ten minute delay on the way to work now, you will only be delayed for nine minutes after the widening project. You’ll get to work one minute sooner.

It is true that the widening proposed by Measure B would add HOV lanes all the way from Windsor to the Marin County line. However, this is mostly a feel-good plan to mislead voters and maximize the profits of the real beneficiaries of the widening &endash; the contractors and suppliers who would pocket the tax money. Calthorpe didn't recommend this "full HOV" scenario because it isn’t cost-effective. In fact, the Calthorpe Report says, "The segment at Windsor River Road is the only one that experiences more than marginal benefit from the investment in continuous HOV lanes. . ." It’s just not worth it.

Citizens Against Wasting Millions
P.O. Box 4449 Santa Rosa, CA 95402-4449
(707) 523-2686


	It Just Won’t Work Doug Salzmann - September, 1998
	Sonoma County residents have been very frustrated, for a very long time, with traffic congestion and travel delays on Highway 101. Regular commuters can predict the times and places where traffic will slow to a crawl or grind to a halt. We are all fed up with creeping along a highway with a 65 mph speed limit and we don’t want to take it anymore. Under these conditions, it is natural that most Sonoma County voters favor widening 101 between Windsor and the Marin County line, as proposed by Measure B on the November ballot. Enacting a twenty year increase in the sales tax to pay for the work, which is the purpose of ballot Measure C, appears less popular. Clearly, most citizens want to take steps to relieve congestion, speed up the traffic and make the freeway flow freely again, but are unsure whether this combination of measures is the best way to achieve the desired goals. The current plan is not the best way to proceed. The sales tax increase is a $600 million blank check which can be spent on any projects the Sonoma County Supervisors choose, and the proposed transportation projects will never significantly relieve congestion. If the highway widening project is undertaken, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars will be wasted, hundreds of thousands of tons of gravel will be strip-mined from our Russian River, and the highway will still be congested. You won’t soon forget this futile and expensive project, either. For the next twenty years, you will be reminded every time you go shopping. If Measure C passes, Sonoma County will have the second highest sales tax rate in California. *Where will the money go?* If Measure C passes, money raised by the sales tax increase will go wherever the supervisors want it to go. The sales tax is a general tax and its proceeds will go into the county’s general fund. Measure B, the transportation measure, would merely advise the supervisors to utilize available funds on the proposed projects, including widening 101. It has no legal standing. Proponents of Measures B & C are fond of explaining that they will make certain that the sales tax money will be spent on the Measure B projects. They tell us that there will be a "watchdog committee" to keep an eye on the use of the funds, and that "political reality" will prevent supervisors from spending the money on other projects. This might be true at first, but it is very unlikely to be true for the twenty years we would be paying the higher tax. The "watchdog committee" proponents refer to does not exist. If it did, it would have no legal standing and county government would be under no obligation to follow its recommendations. It’s nice to imagine that such a committee could be effective, but the fact is that it could not. Neither the backers of the tax increase nor anyone else can predict the economic and political future. Twenty years is a long time in local politics. We don’t know what pressures and choices Sonoma County will face in the coming two decades. We may raise less money from the proposed tax increase than is currently projected. We may face budget deficits, for any of a number of reasons not obvious to us today. At any time in the next twenty years, we might elect supervisors who are not committed to the transportation projects suggested by Measure B. In any of these circumstances, or in others we cannot now foresee, future supervisors (some of whom may be in elementary school today) may choose to spend the sales tax money on other items. There is nothing to stop them. Measure C is a blank check. *Are these lanes for you?* When speaking with Sonoma County residents about Highway 101, it quickly becomes apparent that many do not know that the proposed widening would add only high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, usually called carpool lanes. If you drive alone, you will be stuck in the same congested lanes as always, while a few buses and carpools zip by in lanes you can’t use. It may seem that vehicles moving to the new HOV lanes will open up plenty of space for the rest of us in the other lanes. That is almost certainly not true. The vast majority of Sonoma County commuters drive to work alone. A relative few commute by bus or carpool, modes which are permitted to use the HOV lanes. As these vehicles move to the HOV lanes, plenty of others are ready to take their places, leaving 101 nearly as congested as ever. There is a "pent-up demand" for any increased capacity on 101. This demand will result in what traffic engineers call "generated" or "induced" traffic. The hidden demand for 101 capacity consists of trips which are now postponed, or which are diverted to parallel routes, because of congestion on 101. The traffic waiting to make the new, wider highway just as congested as ever can be found today on Old Redwood Highway, Stony Point Road, Santa Rosa Avenue, Petaluma Hill Road and the other routes Sonoma County drivers use to avoid our crowded Main Street freeway. Studies have found that up to 90% of new highway capacity is quickly filled by this generated traffic. Widening Highway 101 will not significantly improve congestion. A few businesses will benefit from the money spent on the project. All of the rest of us will just pay for it &endash; for the next twenty years. After hundreds of millions of tax dollars and years of construction delays, we’ll still be stuck in traffic. *The best we can hope for?* The proposal to widen 101 is based upon a study conducted by transportation and planning experts, with a final report presented to the Board of Supervisors in June of last year. Known as the Calthorpe Report, it investigated the costs and results of several scenarios to improve transportation in Sonoma County. It is often referred to by proponents of the highway widening and sales tax increase as supporting their position. The truth is that the Calthorpe Report reaches some fairly gloomy conclusions. The experts conducting the study evaluated several options for improving traffic flow on Highway 101. Ultimately, they recommended a "Preferred Scenario" including HOV lanes and climbing lanes along those sections of the highway where the research indicated they will be most helpful. Even with these improvements, the strongest claim for congestion relief made by the Calthorpe Report is that delay during the morning commute will be reduced by ten percent. What does that mean? It means that, if you usually experience a ten minute delay on the way to work now, you will only be delayed for nine minutes after the widening project. You’ll get to work one minute sooner. It is true that the widening proposed by Measure B would add HOV lanes all the way from Windsor to the Marin County line. However, this is mostly a feel-good plan to mislead voters and maximize the profits of the real beneficiaries of the widening &endash; the contractors and suppliers who would pocket the tax money. Calthorpe didn't recommend this "full HOV" scenario because it isn’t cost-effective. In fact, the Calthorpe Report says, "The segment at Windsor River Road is the only one that experiences more than marginal benefit from the investment in continuous HOV lanes. . ." It’s just not worth it.